Stats SA’s latest mid-year population estimate for 2025 reveals that South Africa’s white population remains the only demographic group that continues to decline. According to the Mid-Year Population Estimates (MYPE) 2025, the nation’s population is estimated at 63.1 million, with 4.5 million people identifying as white, making up roughly 7% of the total population.
- South Africa’s White Population in Context
The majority of South Africans remain Black African (82%), followed by coloured (8%) and Indian/Asian (2.5%) populations. Within this context, the white population has experienced slow growth compared to other groups, largely due to lower fertility rates, emigration, and an aging population.
- Fertility trends: The overall fertility rate in South Africa has declined from 2.78 children per woman in 2008 to 2.21 in 2025, with the white population historically below the national average.
- Age structure: A larger proportion of the white population is middle-aged or elderly, reflecting longer life expectancy and lower birth rates within this group.
Also read: South Africa’s low birth rate: Causes and impacts
2. Age and Gender Dynamics
Women slightly outnumber men in South Africa overall, and this trend is mirrored in the white population. While children under 15 account for 26.2% of the national population, the proportion of white children is smaller, indicating an older average age.
Life expectancy trends are encouraging:
- Males: 64.0 years
- Females: 69.6 years
The higher proportion of older adults within the white population has implications for healthcare demand, pensions, and social services in the coming decades.
3. Fertility and Family Trends Among the White Population
The white population is experiencing a decline in fertility, in line with national trends:
- Families are smaller, often with one or two children.
- Delayed family formation is common, reflecting career and lifestyle priorities.
- Access to healthcare and family planning services further supports smaller family sizes.
These trends mean the white population is growing more slowly than other groups, a pattern that may influence cultural, economic, and social dynamics over time.
4. Migration and Geographic Distribution
The white population is concentrated in urban centres, especially Gauteng and the Western Cape, where economic opportunities are strongest. Migration trends indicate:
- Gauteng continues to attract internal and international migrants.
- Western Cape sees steady inflows, contributing to a more urbanized white population.
- Some provinces, like Limpopo and Eastern Cape, have lower proportions of white residents.
5. Crude death rate increase
Stats SA’s Crude Death Rate (CDR), which tracks annual deaths per 1,000 people, rose slightly to 8.8 in 2025, marking its first increase this decade after stabilising at 8.7 following the pandemic peak.
The highest CDR on record was 11.1 in 2021 during COVID-19, surpassing even the HIV crisis in 2006. While all other demographic groups in South Africa are experiencing growth, the white population continues to decline.
