The Fed Is Watching Two Numbers Before Its Next Move. Here Is What They Are.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller delivered a clear message this week: the Fed is not ready to cut yet, but it is close.

Waller said the February CPI report, due March 11, and the February jobs report will be the key inputs for the March FOMC meeting decision. Fortune

Here is the situation he described.

The 2025 jobs data was revised significantly lower. After revisions, US payroll employment likely fell in 2025, only the third time that has happened outside a recession since 1945. Fortune That is a meaningful warning signal.

At the same time, consumer spending slowed in Q4 2025, with personal consumption expenditure growth dropping from 3.5% in Q3 to 2.4% in Q4. Fortune Spending is softening, particularly among lower and middle-income households.

Waller said that if the January jobs strength holds into February, the Fed should stay on hold. But if January’s numbers are revised away or February’s data weakens, a 25 basis point cut in March becomes appropriate. Fortune

What this means for traders.

The March FOMC meeting is on March 19. Between now and then, two major data releases, the jobs report and CPI, will move markets. Each print is a potential trade.

A weak jobs report pushes rate cut expectations higher. That is bearish for the dollar, bullish for gold and equities. A strong jobs report does the opposite.

Mark these dates in your calendar: February jobs report around March 7. February CPI on March 11. FOMC decision on March 19.

You can trade forex, gold, and indices directly around these events.

Get ready to trade the next Fed decision: